Predicting the Future by Nino Mihilli

I'm Not Trying to Predict the Future. I'm Trying to Be Ready for It.

The Older I Get, the Less Interested I Am in Being Certain—and the More Interested I Am in Being Prepared

I spend a lot of time thinking about the future.

Business.

Technology.

Artificial intelligence.

Markets.

Work.

Investing.

What customers will need.

What industries will change.

What opportunities might appear.

But I've become increasingly uncomfortable with one thing:

Certainty.

Whenever someone tells me they know exactly what is going to happen next, I become skeptical.

I don't know exactly what the economy will look like next year.

I don't know which technologies will dominate ten years from now.

I don't know what jobs AI will create that don't even have names today.

I don't know what industries will be disrupted next.

Neither does anyone else.

So I'm trying to spend less energy pretending I can perfectly predict the future.

I'd rather build myself—and my businesses—to handle more than one version of it.

Prediction Feels Powerful

We love predictions because uncertainty is uncomfortable.

People want answers.

Will the economy improve?

Will the market go up?

Will AI eliminate jobs?

Will this industry grow?

Will this business work?

Should I buy?

Should I sell?

What's going to happen?

I understand the desire.

I have the same questions.

But sometimes the better question isn't:

"What will happen?"

It's:

"What happens to me if I'm wrong?"

That changes how you think.

I Care More About the Downside Than I Used To

When I was younger, I probably spent more time thinking about what could go right.

That's natural.

Entrepreneurs are optimistic.

You almost have to be.

Starting something requires believing in a future that doesn't exist yet.

But optimism without respect for downside can become recklessness.

Today I still look at the upside.

But I also ask:

What if sales slow down?

What if this customer leaves?

What if the technology changes?

What if the investment doesn't work?

What if the project takes twice as long?

What if I'm wrong?

I'm not asking those questions because I'm pessimistic.

I'm asking because I want to survive being wrong.

Survival Is an Underrated Business Strategy

Business culture celebrates the big win.

The explosive growth.

The giant exit.

The perfect investment.

The overnight success.

We don't talk enough about simply staying alive.

A business that survives difficult periods gets another chance.

Another customer.

Another year.

Another opportunity.

Another idea.

Another cycle.

You can't take advantage of tomorrow if today's mistake eliminates you from the game.

I've become much more interested in durability.

Staffing Has Taught Me to Respect Cycles

Businesses don't operate in straight lines.

Demand changes.

Customers change.

Labor markets change.

Costs change.

Insurance changes.

Regulations change.

The economy changes.

Some periods are easier.

Some are harder.

Operating a staffing business makes those shifts visible because you're close to the labor market and close to customers.

When companies get cautious, hiring behavior can change quickly.

When business picks up, the need for workers can change just as quickly.

The lesson isn't that I can predict every turn.

The lesson is that the company needs to be able to respond.

Flexibility Has Value

Sometimes the strongest position isn't having the perfect plan.

It's having options.

Cash gives you options.

Skills give you options.

Technology gives you options.

Relationships give you options.

Low fixed costs give you options.

Multiple customers give you options.

Knowledge gives you options.

The ability to change your mind gives you options.

That's one reason I value flexibility so much.

You don't know which option you'll need beforehand.

That's the point.

I Don't Want One Assumption Holding Up the Whole Business

This is something I think about more now.

If the entire strategy works only if one specific thing happens, that's fragile.

If everything depends on one customer staying forever, fragile.

One employee knowing everything, fragile.

One supplier, fragile.

One piece of software nobody understands, fragile.

One source of leads, fragile.

One economic assumption, fragile.

Sometimes concentration is unavoidable.

Especially when you're starting.

But over time, I like identifying those dependencies.

Not because every risk can be eliminated.

It can't.

But risks you can see are easier to manage than risks you refuse to acknowledge.

AI Is a Perfect Example of Why Prediction Is Hard

Look at how quickly artificial intelligence has evolved.

Even people working directly in technology disagree about where it leads.

Jobs will change.

That's obvious.

Which ones?

How quickly?

To what extent?

That's much harder.

I don't think the best response is panic.

I also don't think the best response is pretending nothing will change.

My approach is simpler:

Learn the tools.

Use them.

Understand what they're good at.

Understand where they fail.

Experiment.

Stay curious.

Become more capable.

If AI becomes dramatically more powerful, I'm better prepared.

If progress is slower than expected, I still learned useful tools.

Either way, learning has value.

The Future Usually Doesn't Arrive All at Once

We imagine disruption as some giant moment.

Yesterday everything was normal.

Today the world changed.

Sometimes that happens.

More often, change arrives quietly.

One customer starts asking for something different.

One competitor introduces a better process.

One task becomes automated.

One cost starts rising.

One behavior changes.

One technology gets slightly better.

Then slightly better again.

By the time everyone agrees the world changed, the change may have been happening for years.

That's why I try to pay attention to small signals.

Listen to What People Do

People say a lot of things.

Customers say they want one thing and purchase another.

Companies announce one strategy and spend money somewhere else.

People say price matters most, then pay more for convenience.

They say technology won't change their behavior, then quietly start using it every day.

Actions contain information.

I try to watch behavior.

Where is time going?

Where is money going?

What are customers actually requesting?

What problems keep repeating?

What are people adopting without being forced?

Those signals interest me more than confident predictions.

Being Ready Requires Financial Discipline

Preparation isn't only intellectual.

It's financial.

If every dollar is committed, flexibility disappears.

If the company needs perfect conditions every month to survive, the business becomes vulnerable.

If lifestyle expands every time income expands, personal flexibility disappears too.

I'm not advocating living afraid.

Money should be used.

Invested.

Enjoyed.

Given.

Put to work.

But reserves have value precisely because we don't know what's coming.

Sometimes the best opportunity appears when everyone else is forced to retreat.

You need resources available to act.

Being Ready Requires Skills

I don't know what the most valuable skill will be ten years from now.

But I have a pretty good idea that the ability to learn will remain valuable.

That's why curiosity matters so much to me.

Learn technology.

Learn finance.

Learn communication.

Learn sales.

Learn how businesses work.

Learn how people work.

Learn how to use new tools.

You don't have to master everything.

You need confidence that when something changes, you can learn what comes next.

That's a different kind of security.

Being Ready Requires Relationships

This gets overlooked.

People are part of resilience.

The person who calls you with an opportunity.

The customer who trusts you.

The employee who tells you the truth.

The friend who knows something you don't.

The person who makes an introduction.

The mentor who recognizes a mistake before you do.

Relationships create options that don't appear on a balance sheet.

That's one reason I don't like treating every interaction transactionally.

You never know where life will take people.

Treat them well anyway.

Being Ready Means Being Willing to Abandon Your Prediction

This may be the hardest part.

You make a forecast.

You form an opinion.

Then reality starts disagreeing with you.

Now what?

Do you change?

Or defend the prediction?

Ego can make people remarkably loyal to an idea reality has already rejected.

I've become more comfortable saying:

"The evidence changed. So did my opinion."

I don't consider that weakness.

I consider refusing to update much more dangerous.

Writing Taught Me This Too

Writing The Variable didn't unfold exactly as I originally imagined.

Creative work rarely does.

You begin with an idea.

Then the characters change.

The story develops.

Something that looked great in your head doesn't work on the page.

You rewrite.

Delete.

Move things.

The destination may remain similar while the route changes completely.

Business works that way too.

Have direction.

But don't become so attached to the map that you ignore the road in front of you.

Faith Doesn't Give Me a Forecast

My faith gives me confidence.

But not the kind of confidence that says I know exactly what's going to happen.

Proverbs 16:9 says:

"In their hearts humans plan their course, but the Lord establishes their steps."

I love that verse because it holds two ideas together.

Plan.

And recognize that your plan isn't God.

I can prepare.

Work.

Study.

Save.

Build.

Think.

Make decisions.

But there will always be things outside my control.

Faith doesn't eliminate uncertainty.

It changes how I live inside it.

I Want to Build Antifragile Habits

I don't need every future event to benefit me.

That's unrealistic.

But I want habits that remain useful across many futures.

Spend intentionally.

Keep learning.

Maintain relationships.

Take care of health.

Use technology.

Avoid unnecessary debt.

Protect reputation.

Question assumptions.

Keep some resources available.

Don't risk everything on one outcome.

Stay close to customers.

Listen to people doing the actual work.

Keep faith bigger than fear.

Those habits don't require knowing what happens next.

That's why I like them.

Preparation Creates Confidence Without Arrogance

There's a type of confidence that says:

"I know what's going to happen."

I don't trust that very much.

There's another kind:

"I don't know exactly what's going to happen, but I trust my ability to respond."

I like that much better.

That's the kind of confidence I want personally.

And it's the kind of resilience I want in the things I build.

Final Thoughts

I will keep thinking about the future.

I enjoy it too much to stop.

I'll study technology.

Markets.

Business.

AI.

Human behavior.

Economic changes.

New opportunities.

I'll form opinions.

Make forecasts.

Place bets on certain directions.

That's part of building.

But I'm trying to hold predictions with an open hand.

Because the objective isn't to be the person who guessed everything correctly.

The objective is to still be standing, learning, building, and capable of acting when reality reveals what actually happened.

So I don't need to know exactly what the next decade looks like.

I need to keep building things that remain valuable across many versions of it.

Skills.

Relationships.

Capital.

Knowledge.

Adaptability.

Faith.

Judgment.

Curiosity.

And the humility to change when the evidence changes.

I'm not trying to perfectly predict the future.

I'm trying to become the kind of person—and build the kind of businesses—that can meet it when it arrives.

— Nino Mihilli

Stay Connected with Nino Mihilli

🌐 Personal Website: https://www.ninomihilli.com

🏢 T47 Group: https://www.t47group.com

👷 Flat Staffing: https://www.flatstaffing.com

📖 Read Nino Mihilli's novel, The Variable, on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GX3783RG

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